Many years during which monsoons were poor saw high returns, while normal or excess rainfall has also coincided with poor calendar year gains.
Citing faster-than-expected recovery, rising consumer confidence and the resultant spending spike, Swiss brokerage UBS Securities has revised upwards its growth forecast for the current fiscal to 9.5 per cent from 8.9 per cent in September. The brokerage also sees the economy clipping at 7.7 per cent in FY23 but moderating to 6 per cent in FY24, as it expects the benefit of the low-interest rate regime to end by the end of FY23, and it sees the central bank hiking policy rates by 50 bps in the second half of the next fiscal. The Reserve Bank also forecasts 9.5 per cent GDP growth this fiscal while the average projection ranges from 8.5 to 10 per cent.
'Modi must keep his members in check or risk losing domestic and global credibility,' Moody's warned.
The Budget will indicate where the Modi government stands on reforms, growth and development.
As the country readies to go to polls on July 25, one can't deny the role of the military, but there are other factors too.
There is the problem of regions in the North East being theatre for power-play by nations with borders and influences converging in those parts, which in turn requires a sizable presence of the armed forces, notes Shyam G Menon.
Because of India's weak fiscal position, the plethora of debt-burdened infrastructure companies and the poor asset quality of public sector banks, economic growth in 2015-16 may be limited to about six per cent, say Shankar Acharya.
'Earnings revival could be two quarters away.'
India must streamline reforms, only then it will see success.
'With vendetta politics as its main plank, the BJP will be looking out for every opportunity to destabilise this Mahagatbandhan government.'
Industry body CII has pitched for a reduction in personal income tax rates, decriminalisation of the goods and services tax and a relook at the capital gains tax rates as part of its agenda presented to the government for the forthcoming Budget. Arguing that the GST law already contains adequate penal provisions for deterrence against evasion of taxes, CII has suggested decriminalisation of GST law. Also, the applicability of prosecution provisions should not be based on the absolute amount of tax evasion but should be based on real intent to evade the taxes and a certain percentage of the tax payable, it stated.
Outfits related to labour and agriculture critical of policies, say their voices are not being heard. Archis Mohan reports.
'There are certain critical deficiencies like shortage of fighter squadrons and force multipliers which must be addressed on priority to retain our combat edge'
After years of disappointing growth, the economy and the markets are poised for a breakout, notes Akash Prakash.
The current capital flight is a short-term phenomenon, the agency said.
'At a time when the economy is depressed, a pandemic is raging, and the Chinese are making noises on the border, the NRC could be resuscitated.'
The Union Cabinet on Wednesday approved the participation of the private sector in the entire range of space activities, including planetary exploration missions, Union minister Jitendra Singh said. The newly-created Indian National Space Promotion and Authorisation Centre (IN-SPACe) will provide a level playing field for private companies to use Indian space infrastructure, Singh, who is the minister of state in the Prime Minister's Office, said.
Modi govt must bring about reforms to kick-start big-ticket infra projects.
The land acquisition bill is a catalyst to investment and passing the bill will improve India's business environment.
After navigating the turbulent pandemic waves, the recovering Indian economy is now sailing through unchartered waters of rising coronavirus cases, spiralling commodity prices and spiking inflation though the lighthouse of sustainable growth remains visible. As 2022 begins, a raft of developments, ranging from Budgetary announcements to continuation of stimulus measures to monetary policy, will set the tone for the domestic economy, which is projected to grow more than 9 per cent in the current fiscal ending March 2022. The country's continuing massive vaccination drive and 'precaution' doses starting for select categories of people this month will provide a firewall against any steep spike in coronavirus cases amid the emergence of the Omicron variant.
Through this Budget, the Obama Administration, policy makers, corporate sector and economists in the US are hoping to see a strong sign of a the major economic reforms which were promised by Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his election campaign.
'He depended too much on assurances given by sadhus and sants. He may not be culpable, but he was wholly responsible for December 6, 1992.' 'While Manmohan Singh came to reforms out of conviction, Rao came to reforms out of compulsion. If the compulsion had not been there, I don't know how he would have responded.'
'Although Hong Kong weathered many a storm and displayed a remarkable resilience to bounce back, the developments in the territory have raised question marks with regard to its future stability and prosperity.' A revealing excerpt from Rup Narayan Das's Hong Kong Conundrum: Pangs of Transition.
The previous high in quarterly GDP growth was recorded in the January-March quarter of 2015-16 at 9.3 per cent.
'We suggest investors with suitable risk appetite to consider allocating 40-50 per cent in large-caps, 25-30 per cent of funds in quality mid and small-caps and the rest in debt and high yield products.'
Indian economist Kalpana Kochhar, who heads the Human Resources Department of the International Monetary Fund, is leaving the organisation to join the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the IMF announced on Wednesday. Kochhar, who served in various senior positions during her three decades at the IMF, will retire on July 30, it said.
'It seems a wiser decision to pull out at the right moment than regret after joining the pact,' explains Dr Rahul Mishra.
This election will decide in what shape and form the Akali Dal will survive.
A new study shows that the bottom half of the population enjoyed only 15 per cent of national income in 2013-14, down sharply from 24 per cent in the early 1980s.
The dinner Jill Biden and her husband US President Joe Biden hosted for Indian prime minister Narendra Modi, June 22, at the White House brought together, Indians and Americans from so many firmaments.
'Event management can distract from, but not permanently mask, execution failures,' points out Rathin Roy, director, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
India, which is ranked 2nd in Q3, raced past China where only 30 per cent respondents expect an increase in revenue, whereas in India, 85 per cent respondents have voted in favour of increasing revenue
However, in 2020, gold demand in India -- the world's second biggest consumer after China -- could increase to 700-800 tonnes on hopes of increased acceptance of high price level and likely economic reforms boosting consumer confidence, World Gold Council said.
Average global growth prospects for the next 12 months and the next three years are 35 per cent and 49 per cent, respectively.
Next week, US Secretary of State John Kerry travels to India for the fourth annual US-India Strategic Dialogue
Investment in infrastructure was necessary for the economy, as power shortages, inadequate transport and poor connectivity affect overall growth performance, as per the Economic Survey 2019-20 tabled in Parliament by Union Finance and Corporate Affairs Minister Nirmala Sitharaman. "To achieve GDP of USD 5 trillion by 2024-25, India needs to spend about USD 1.4 trillion (Rs 100 lakh crore) over these years on infrastructure so that a lack of infrastructure does not become a constraint to growth," it said.
The broad trends of GST collections will make you wonder if indeed the biggest indirect tax reform in the country has led to a real improvement in revenues, notes A K Bhattacharya.
Every twist and turn in KMC's civil service career is attributed to serendipity, an aptitude for making desirable discoveries by accident. He plays down his capabilities, which took him to the top of the civil service as the Cabinet Secretary or his misfortune in losing a daughter in her prime and suggests that his career was indeed serendipitous, observes Ambassador T P Sreenivasan.
In an address at the Council of Heads of Government meeting of the eight-member SCO, Vice President Venkaiah Naidu said the most important challenge faced by the region is terrorism, particularly cross-border terrorism, and that India remained concerned about threats emerging from ungoverned spaces as well.
The panel noted that the macro-economic fundamentals of the economy are sound but challenges remain, several of which are structural in nature.
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